MANILA – In the clearest signal yet of policy continuity from Biden to Trump in Asia, the US and Philippines have kicked off their largest-ever joint Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) military exercises, including drills simulating “full-scale battle scenarios” with China.
As many as 6,000 Filipino soldiers will join 12,000 US troops for the 40th edition of the exercises, scheduled to run from April 21 through May 9.
Significantly, the US will deploy to the Philippines a second Typhon mid-range missile system, a weapon it brought for last year’s drills and left in place to Beijing’s chagrin.
Both Japan and Australia, which, like the US, also have visiting forces agreements with Manila, are directly participating in the exercises, while more than half a dozen European countries, including Britain, France, Germany, Poland and the Netherlands, are attending as observers.
Aside from escalating tensions in the South China Sea, most recently over the Sandy Cay in the Spratly group of islands, the Philippine military has also indicated its potential involvement in any war scenario with China over neighboring Taiwan.
Earlier this month, Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner made it clear that his country wouldn’t be a neutral bystander if China took kinetic action against the self-governing island.
Beijing views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be “reunified” with the mainland. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for a conflict with the US over Taiwan by 2027.
Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece, Global Times, quoted Chinese military affairs expert Zhang Junshe saying that the Philippines seeks to leverage external forces to advance its “illegal territorial expansion in the South China Sea.” Such maneuvers, the expert said, will not only fail to achieve their objectives but also incur significant consequences.
This year’s Balikatan exercises involve drills both close to disputed areas in the South China Sea as well as near Taiwan. Participating nations will deploy some of their most advanced weapons systems to enhance interoperability and signal shared resolve against China’s rising threats in the region.
The Philippine Navy (PN) will deploy its most potent anti-ship weapon, the South Korean-made LIG NEX 1 C-Star “sea-skimming” surface-to-surface cruise missile. It will reportedly be deployed during the “maritime strike” (MARSTRIKE) portion of the drills that will simulate the sinking of a decommissioned ship on May 5.
The Philippines will also be deploying its new batch of Indian-made Brahmos supersonic missiles.
Apart from the Typhon missile system, the Americans will also send the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) anti-ship missile launcher, marking its first-ever deployment to the Philippines.
The system has a 185-kilometer range, meaning it could threaten vessels entering the Luzon Strait if based on the northernmost islands in Batanes directly across from Taiwan, Naval News reported. The drills will not fire the system’s missiles but will conduct simulated fire missions, according to Philippine media reports.
By enhancing maritime security interoperability and steadily establishing a “Wall of Missiles” – stretching from Guam and southern Japan all the way to northern Philippines – the US aims to constrain China’s territorial ambitions through an “integrated deterrence” strategy.
“By deploying two types of missile systems [Typhon and NMESIS], the US has established a comprehensive long-, medium- and short-range strike network, with a maximum range of 1,800 kilometers, covering China’s southeastern coastal areas, the Taiwan Straits, the Bashi Channel and the northern South China Sea,” Zhang told the Global Times.
“In the event of a conflict, these locations where missiles are deployed will inevitably become targets for counterstrikes,” said Zhang. “The Philippines’ approach essentially amounts to opening the door to a predator and will only backfire.”
The exercises were launched shortly after US Defense Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s visit to Manila, where he reiterated Washington’s “iron-clad commitment” to its Southeast Asian mutual defense treaty ally and emphasized the need for enhancing maritime deterrence against China.
With crucial Philippine midterm elections scheduled next month, the Philippines and its allies are also focused on securing the nation against malign foreign interference, including Chinese disinformation campaigns targeting US-leaning President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration.
Top Filipino authorities have directly accused China of backing candidates sympathetic to Beijing’s positions as well as allegedly sowing disinformation ahead of the polls, which are being viewed as a referendum on Marcos Jr’s tenure so far.
Earlier this month, top Philippine general alleged that “communist China is already conducting united front works in our country.” The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Romeo Brawner went so far as to claim that the Asian superpower is “already infiltrating our institutions, our schools, our businesses, our churches, even our ranks in the military.”
Though he didn’t provide specific details, the Philippine military chief warned against “cyber warfare, information warfare, cognitive warfare, [and] political warfare” by China and its alleged proxies. Accordingly, cybersecurity was a chief focus of the Balikatan exercises’ opening days.
Last week, Filipino and US troops conducted The Cyber Defense Exercise (Cydex) across multiple key locations, which included Camp Aguinaldo in Manila, home to the Philippine Department of National Defense; the Western Command in Palawan, which covers Philippine naval operations in the hotly disputed Spratlys; and in Clark Air Base and Subic in Zambales, which faces the South China Sea and previously served as the site of America’s largest overseas bases.
Colombian Armed Forces and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force were among the observers who attended the Cyber Command’s Cybersecurity Incident Response Team, underscoring an emerging pan-Pacific security alliance with the Philippines at its forefront.
The highlight of the Balikatan exercises, however, will be maritime drills with an increasingly clear focus on preparing for a potential war with China.
The allies kicked off the annual exercises with a live-fire maneuver 21 nautical miles west of San Felipe, Zambales, a strategically situated province close to the contested Scarborough Shoal. The disputed feature has been under China’s de facto control following a months-long naval standoff with the Philippine Navy in 2012.
This year will also see the simulated sinking of the ex-BRP Miguel Malvar (PS-19), a decommissioned Philippine vessel, while the Philippine Air Force, US Air Force, US Marine Corps and the Australian Defense Force will partake in a series of drills aimed at enhancing joint responses to major contingencies.
The allies will also display their growing missile power in the region. Last year, for the first time, Philippine naval forces used a C-Star missile to sink a target vessel in the waters off the coast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, which faces Taiwan.
The Korean-made C-Star anti-ship missile, installed on BRP Jose Rizal and its sister ship and the BRP Antonio Luna (FF-151), increases the Philippine navy’s firepower’s range from as low as 3 to 16 km to as high as 180 to 200 km.
The ships are expected to be equipped with twice as many C-Star launch tubes on top of their anti-submarine torpedoes, anti-air missiles and a 76mm main gun.
The C-Star missile, along with aerial assets from allied nations, namely the Philippine Air Force’s FA-50PH fighter jets and the US military’s F-16s and F-35s, will be involved in the sinking of the Vietnam-era BRP Miguel Malvar (PS-19) during this year’s penultimate drills.
The increasingly complex, sophisticated and geographically expansive nature of this year’s Balikatan exercises underscores not only shared threat perceptions by the US and the Philippines but also rising fears of a major conflict in the region, either over Taiwan or over disputed features in the South China Sea.
“Start planning for actions in case there is an invasion of Taiwan,” General Brawner told Philippine troops during a visit to Northern Luzon Command headquarters earlier month. “Because if something happens to Taiwan, inevitably we will be involved,” he added, underscoring the potential need “to rescue” a quarter million Filipinos now working in Taiwan.
“These are the areas where we perceive the possibility of an attack. I do not want to sound alarmist, but we have to prepare,” Brawner told Filipino troops during his early April visit. “It’s very important that we prepare for any eventuality,” he added.
Accordingly, some of the Balikatan exercises will take place in northern Philippine waters facing Taiwan.
Under the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the US will rotationally position troops and advanced weapons systems in northernmost provinces such as Cagayan, Isabela and likely even in Batanes.
Marcos Jr’s home province, Ilocos Norte, temporarily hosted America’s Typhon missile batteries, which are capable of targeting military bases across southern China.
During the Balikatan exercises, the allied states, Brawner said, will conduct “full battle test” of “all of the plans, all of the doctrines, all of the procedures that we have developed in the past years” to prepare for a potential conflict in Taiwan.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @RichHeydarian
