Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  All notes can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in April:

• Macroeconomic trends: GDP grew by just 2.9% in 2024 — below all forecasts. Economic recovery continues, but momentum is fading. Business and consumer expectations remain positive. Ukrainians maintain optimism despite challenging geopolitical developments.
• Monetary, FX, and banking sectors: Inflation hits 14.6%, Key policy rate steady at 15.5%. Reserves up, hryvnia strengthens on lower demand. Hryvnia lending and deposit grow amid FX weakness.
• Fiscal sector: Historically high March revenues due to CPT from banks: The state budget received UAH 214 bn of taxes, adding 38% y-o-y. January expenditures are twice as high as last year as defense aid drives spending increase.
• Sectoral analysis: Cold spring leaves Ukraine reliant on electricity imports with fragile energy armistice at risk of breaking down. Daily metallurgy output falls in March. There are no preconditions for a repeat of last year’s positive trend in Q2. The end of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) by the EU in June as a major challenge for agri. In March, monthly exports of grains and oilseeds around 4 mt for the fourth consecutive month.
• Special topic: From self-sufficiency to heavy import dependence: Moscow regime terroristic attacks wreck Ukraine’s domestic gas production capacity. Gas reserves at historic lows post-winter. Import reliance grows amid record-high infrastructure losses. Ukraine can import enough — if politics cooperates. A guaranteed capacity to receive gas from the EU is much higher than ~4.5 bcm needed. Up to $3.5 bn needed for winter energy security: imports, infrastructure restoration, and production ramp-up require urgent funding.

See our report for further details.

Invited speakers:

• Oleksandr Kharchenko, Managing Director at EIR Center.
• Nataliya Boyko, Deputy Chairperson of the Supervisory Board of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine.
• Torsten Wöllert, Energy Counsellor at the EU Delegation to Ukraine.
• Andriy Herus, Member of Parliament, Chairman of the Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services.
• Artem Shevalev, Alternate Board Director at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Moderator: Hlib Vyshlinsky, Executive Director of CES.

Media partner — Ekonomichna Pravda.