India is in mourning after 26 tourists were killed on April 22 in a resort in picturesque Pahalgam. The massacre is considered to be the deadliest attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir since 2000.

The attack happened during peak tourist season as thousands flocked to the popular tourist destination. Most of those killed were Indians, with the exception of one Nepalese national. All the victims were men.

Pakistan has denied any involvement, but there are serious fears of escalation between the two nuclear powers. India’s defense minister, Rajnath Singh, openly accused Pakistan and threatened: “We will not only target those who carried out the attack. We will also target those who planned this act in the shadows, on our soil.”

India has shut a key border between the countries, expelled Pakistan’s diplomats and suspended the landmark Indus Waters Treaty, which allows the sharing of water between the two countries.

The timing of these attacks is noteworthy as it coincides with major international and domestic events. The US vice president, JD Vance, had arrived the day before with his Indian-American wife Usha and their three children, seeking closer India-US relations against the backdrop of a burgeoning trade war between the US and China. Notably, Pakistan considers China historically as an all-weather friend and ally.

The attack also comes a few weeks after the Indian government passed the Waqf (Amendment) Act which seeks to change how properties worth billions donated by Muslims, including mosques, madrassas, graveyards and orphanages, are governed.

This act is also accused of diluting the rights of India’s Muslim communities by permitting the appointment of non-Muslims to their boards and tribunals.

Resistance Front

The Resistance Front (TRF) has claimed responsibility for the attack. A hitherto lesser-known armed group in the Kashmir region, TRF emerged in 2019 with the aim of fighting for Kashmir’s secession from India.

In 2023, it was designated as a terrorist organization by the Indian government under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), and the group’s founder, Sheikh Sajjad Gul was declared a terrorist.

TRF was formed largely in response to the Indian government’s move to strip Kashmir (India’s erstwhile only Muslim-majority state) of its semi-autonomous status in 2019. At this point, the Modi government split Kashmir into two union territories – Jammu & Kashmir – and brought it under more direct federal control.

The move also paved the way for the extension of land-owning rights and access to government-sponsored job quotas to non-locals. These changes could deprive locals of much-needed opportunities and radically alter the demographics of the region.

In a message on the messaging app Telegram, the group said: “Consequently, violence will be directed toward those attempting to settle illegally.” This tends to support the idea that the influx of “outsiders” was the justification for the attack.

In its short life, TRF has been responsible for numerous attacks targeting civilians, security forces and politicians in the region. The group took shape using social media and continues to rely on it to organize and recruit members.

Notably, the name TRF breaks from traditional rebel groups operating in the region, most of whom bear Islamic names. By doing so, it supposedly aims to project a “neutral” (read as non-religious) front, rather emphasizing the fight for Kashmiri nationalism.

Was Pakistan involved?

The group is also reported to be linked to the Pakistani spy agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Pakistan has denied these links. But analysts fear that any retaliation could escalate and threaten the tenuous peace along the border between the two countries.

Importantly, the TRF is believed to be an offshoot of – or perhaps simply a front for – the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistan-based armed group.

The LeT was involved in many terrorist attacks on Indian soil, most significantly, the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks in which an estimated 176 people were killed. The perpetrators of the atrocity are believed by many, including the US government, to have received help from the ISI.

While not explicitly stated as a link to the Pahalgam attack, it is noteworthy that the suspected mastermind of the Mumbai attacks, Tahawwur Rana, a Pakistan-born Canadian citizen was extradited to India from the US on April 10. The US Embassy in New Delhi has confirmed that Rana will stand trial in India on ten criminal charges.

In contrast to the supposed “neutral” ostensibly non-Islamist nature of the TRF, the LeT (which translates as Army of the Righteous/Pure), is a Sunni terrorist group. Its aim is to establish an Islamic state in South Asia and parts of Central Asia, with Kashmir being integral to its plans.

To achieve this, since its formation in the early 1990s, the group’s focus has been on attacking military and civilian targets in Kashmir, supporting Pakistan’s claim to the region.

In the late 1990s, then-US president, Bill Clinton described South Asia as the most dangerous place on Earth. Given the chance of a rapidly escalating India-Pakistan standoff, this could well be the case once again.

M Sudhir Selvaraj is assistant professor of peace studies and international development, University of Bradford

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.